The 2026–27 picture is another reminder that even when funding announcements look familiar on the surface, the detail can still move beneath the feet of trust finance teams. Changes to how some funding is rolled into the formula, continued pressure around SEND, and wider uncertainty around staffing costs all make it harder to rely on last year’s assumptions.

That doesn’t mean budget-setting has to become dramatic. What it does mean, though, is that small trusts need a process that’s calmer, clearer and better prepared for inevitable twists and turns.

Start your academy trust budget with the assumptions most likely to move

One of the biggest causes of budget surprises can be false certainty during the build period. A draft budget built on fixed assumptions can look reassuring in April, but by June or July, it can already be out of date.

For smaller trusts, the safest approach is to identify the assumptions that are most likely to shift further down the line. Usually, that means staffing costs, pupil numbers, SEND-related pressure, and any funding lines where the final position is still emerging. For 2026–27, trusts also need to pay close attention to how grant changes and roll-ins affect like-for-like comparisons with the previous year.

Rather than overcomplicating the process, this is about prioritising transparency from the outset. Which numbers are firm? Which are provisional? Which ones would materially change the picture? These considerations can help prevent a great deal of rework later.

Build a small trust budget that shows best case, likely case and pressure case

For smaller trusts, a three-view approach to budgeting is often more useful than a single, polished version. Start with your most likely position, and then build a best case and a pressure case around it. In doing so, you can be more attuned to the risks posed to your trust’s financial health.

What happens if staffing costs rise faster than planned, for example? Or if pupil numbers come in lower? And what happens if one school needs more support than expected? This is where many finance leaders regain control. Not because they can predict every change, but because they can see the likely impact before it becomes a problem.

That’s also where trustee conversations become easier. A board usually responds better to: “Here are the three outcomes we have prepared for,” than to: “This was the budget until these three things changed.”

Why staffing assumptions create the biggest budget surprises for small MATs

In most trusts, staffing remains the largest area of spend. It is also the area where small changes can have the biggest knock-on effect. From vacancies filled late to increased support needs, there are all sorts of directions pressure can come from. And for smaller trusts, there is often less room to absorb these shifts quietly.

As such, staffing assumptions need to be reviewed line by line, not just copied forward from the previous cycle. Pressure-testing staffing plans against pupil need, curriculum delivery and leadership capacity helps trusts spot issues earlier.

Trust-wide visibility can reduce manual checking and late surprises

Small finance teams don’t struggle because they lack commitment. They struggle because too much time goes into pulling numbers together, checking versions and chasing updates. That creates risk. When information lives in spreadsheets, separate files or school-by-school templates, surprises are harder to spot early. A trust can look stable at headline level while a pressure point is building underneath.

Clear trust-wide visibility changes that. It helps finance leaders compare schools consistently, challenge assumptions sooner and walk into trustee meetings with more confidence.

How small trusts can make 2026–27 budget planning feel more controlled

No budget can totally remove uncertainty. But better processes can make sure more bases are covered in the face of turbulence. For small trusts, that usually means four things:

• Start with moveable assumptions

• Build more than one scenario

• Review staffing carefully

• Keep trust-wide visibility as clear as possible.

In remaining proactive, rather than reactive, you can build a 2026–27 budget with fewer surprises.

Want to talk to us about improving your budgeting and planning processes? Start by connecting with our team.